Rental Replay
Rental home versus stock market cinematic showdown

Replay the buy

Rental vs Stocks?

Enter a zip code and compare a real rental purchase against the S&P using historical home values, rents, mortgage rates, and market returns.

Community Leaderboard

The best and worst markets discovered by Rental Replay users so far.

Run a simulation to get your market on the board.

Real Stories

Follow different investors and see what actually would have happened.

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SarahThe cautious first-timer

Sarah was 28, renting in Charlotte, and tired of watching her landlord profit. She scraped together 10% down on a $125K duplex in 2017 — her friends thought she was crazy to buy so young.

Charlotte, NC · Bought Jan 2017 · 10% down

See what happened →

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MarcusThe long-distance investor

Marcus worked in tech in San Francisco but couldn't afford to invest locally. In 2016, he put 20% down on a $180K rental in Tampa sight-unseen — trusting the data over his gut.

Tampa, FL · Bought Jan 2016 · 20% down

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Priya & DevThe pandemic buyers

Priya and Dev had been saving for years when COVID hit. With rates at historic lows in 2020, they went all-in with 25% down on a $350K home in Boise — right before the Idaho migration wave.

Boise, ID · Bought Jan 2020 · 25% down

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JamesThe Austin true believer

James was a musician in Austin who heard everyone say "Austin is too expensive now" in 2018. He disagreed, put 5% down on a $310K place near the east side, and held on tight.

Austin, TX · Bought Jan 2018 · 5% down

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What Could Go Wrong

Not every investment is a winner because understanding the risks is just as important.

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LindaThe suburban overreach

Linda stretched her budget in 2016 to buy a $420K home in a pricey San Jose suburb with just 5% down. She figured Bay Area prices only go up. The mortgage ate most of the rent from day one.

San Jose, CA · Bought Jan 2016 · 5% down

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TonyThe peak buyer

Tony heard coworkers bragging about real estate gains and FOMO'd into a $290K condo in Denver in 2020 with 10% down. He bought right at the top of the COVID-era price spike.

Denver, CO · Bought Jan 2020 · 10% down

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RachelThe small-town bet

Rachel found a dirt-cheap $85K house in rural Illinois in 2016 and thought it was a steal. 20% down, low mortgage — what could go wrong? Turns out, cheap houses in shrinking towns stay cheap.

Decatur, IL · Bought Jan 2016 · 20% down

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Compare Market Categories

See how college towns, resort cities, and other market types stack up using normalized returns across multiple zip codes.

Compare Markets

How It Works

Pick a Zip Code

Choose from 26,000+ zip codes with real Zillow data

Set Your Terms

Select start year and down payment percentage

See the Results

Watch your investment grow month-by-month through today

Simulation Assumptions▼

Data Sources

  • Home values: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)
  • Rents: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI)
  • Mortgage rates: FRED 30-Year Fixed
  • Benchmark: S&P 500 monthly close

Purchase Terms

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage
  • 3.5% closing costs
  • Default 20% down payment (adjustable)
  • Purchase date: January of selected year

Operating Expenses

  • Property tax: 1.1% of assessed value/yr
  • Insurance: 0.75% of home value/yr
  • Maintenance: 1% of home value/yr
  • Property management: 10% of rent

Other Assumptions

  • Vacancy: 8% of rent (~1 month/yr)
  • Assessed value capped at 2%/yr growth
  • Capital gains tax: 15% on appreciation
  • Depreciation recapture: 25% (27.5-yr schedule)
  • Selling costs: 6% of sale price
  • No income tax on rental income modeled